Adult salmon monitoring on the Frome Stephen Gregory sgregory@gwct.org.uk

Talk format 1) River Frome 2) Adult counts 3) Objective 4) Analysis plan 5) Perspectives

Talk format 1) River Frome 2) Adult counts 3) Objective 4) Analysis plan 5) Perspectives

River Frome Where is it? South west England Near Bournemouth

River Frome

River Frome Where is it? South west England Near Bournemouth Wareham > Dorchester

River Frome

River Frome Description Similar to the Scorff (Morbihan) Measure Frome Scorff Catchment area: km 2 454 483 Length: km 69.8 76 Mean flow: m 3 s - 1 6.7 5.0

Talk format 1) River Frome 2) Adult counts 3) Objective 4) Analysis plan 5) Perspectives

Adult counts Ocean River

Adult counts Ocean River

Adult counts Resistivity counter 5km from the tidal limit

Adult counts

Adult counts Resistivity counter

Adult counts Resistivity counter 3 electrodes

Adult counts Resistivity counter 3 electrodes electric field

Adult counts Resistivity counter 3 electrodes electric field waveform

Adult counts Resistivity counter 3 electrodes electric field waveform

Adult counts Verification

Adult counts Verification Photo verification

Adult counts Verification Photo verification triggered at count

Adult counts Verification Photo verification triggered at count flow - sensitive

Adult counts Verification Photo verification Video verification

Adult counts Verification Photo verification Video verification 24h / 24h

Adult counts Verification Photo verification Video verification 24h / 24h flow - sensitive

Adult counts Verification

Adult counts Verification Each waveform count photo - checked (if triggered)

Adult counts Verification Each waveform count photo - checked (if triggered) species video - checked

Adult counts Verification Each waveform count 24hr video watched each month

Adult counts Verification Each waveform count 24hr video watched each month objects missed by waveform

Adult counts 102cm salmon

Adult counts Data 40 years (1973 - 2013 )

Adult counts

Adult counts Data 40 years (1973 - 2013) But System has changed since 1973 System failure, esp. during flood

Talk format 1) River Frome 2) Adult counts 3) Objective 4) Analysis plan 5) Perspectives

Objective To develop a method for estimating the number of salmon (and its uncertainty) that ascend the river each year

Objective To develop a method for estimating the number of salmon (and its uncertainty) that ascend the river each year permit some system failure

Objective To develop a method for estimating the number of salmon (and its uncertainty) that ascend the river each year permit some system failure permit covariates of efficiency

Objective To develop a method for estimating the number of salmon (and its uncertainty) that ascend the river each year permit some system failure permit covariates of efficiency transferable to other rivers / systems

Talk format 1) River Frome 2) Adult counts 3) Objective 4) Analysis plan 5) Perspectives

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis works with missing data

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis works with missing data flexible: allows covariates

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis works with missing data flexible: allows covariates natural error propagation

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event salmon

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event salmon other fish

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event salmon other fish other object (e.g., wood)

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event Type of classification true & false positives

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event Type of classification true & false positives true & false negatives

Analysis plan Waveform Salmon Salmon Other fish NA Video Salmon Other fish Salmon Salmon Classify True positive False positive False negative True negative

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event Type of classification Count each combination each day

Analysis plan Waveform Salmon Salmon Other fish NA Video Salmon Other fish Salmon Salmon Classify True positive False positive False negative True negative Count 3 0 1 1

Analysis plan Bayesian classification analysis Type of event Type of classification Count each combination each day Estimate error rates ( n )

Analysis plan Adult salmon estimate Each count combination given a prior (~ negbin )

Analysis plan Waveform Salmon Salmon Other fish NA Video Salmon Other fish Salmon Salmon Classify True positive False positive False negative True negative Count 3 0 1 1 Prior ~ negbin ~ negbin ~ negbin ~ negbin

Analysis plan Adult salmon estimate Each count combination given a prior (~ negbin ) Count & priors updated with observed counts (~ binomial)

Analysis plan Adult salmon estimate Each count combination given a prior (~ negbin ) Count & priors updated with observed counts (~ binomial) salmon_true = f (True positives, False negatives) not - salmon_true = f (True negatives, False positives)

Analysis plan Demonstration Frome data

Analysis plan Demonstration Frome data Period 2002 - 2012 No changes in the system

Analysis plan Demonstration Frome data Period 2002 - 2012 No changes in the system

Analysis plan Demonstration Frome data Period 2002 - 2012

Talk format 1) River Frome 2) Adult counts 3) Objective 4) Analysis plan 5) Perspectives

Perspectives Adult count model Construct and fit the model !

Perspectives Adult count model Construct and fit the model ! Apply to all 40yrs Frome data

Perspectives Adult count model Construct and fit the model ! Apply to all 40yrs Frome data Transfer to other rivers Open source web application

Perspectives Salmon Life Cycle (SLC) model

Perspectives Salmon Life Cycle (SLC) model Reconstruct salmon dynamics eggs, parr, smolt, etc

Perspectives Salmon Life Cycle (SLC) model Reconstruct salmon dynamics eggs, parr, smolt, etc Adult counts >> SLC

Summary Develop model to better estimate adult counts on the Frome Present model (transferable) Use estimates in SLC