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Forex Market Analysis_12.03.2013.pptx

Published Mar 15, 2013 in Business & Management
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Presentation Slides & Transcript

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Daily Forex Market Overview







The Euro dropped sharply on Friday against the US dollar after the surprising improvement in US unemployment. US Jobless Rate dropped by 0.2% in February from 7.9% to 7.7% and at the same time Non-Farm Payrolls increased in February by 236K, more than anticipated figure at 162K while the January NFP revised downwards to 119K. The EURUSD sank from 1.3118 to 1.2964 on Friday while US indices continued rallying with Dow Jones rising to record high again at 14,397 on increased risk appetite. The single currency is also under pressure due to political uncertainty in Italy, struggling to remain above 1.30 versus the greenback, also EU leaders are going to meet again later this week to decide on Cyprus bail out terms. Moreover, Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy’s credit rating due inconclusive elections adding to the selling pressure.
Euro Struggles to Hold, Yen Weakens to 3 ½ Year Record Lows






The USDJPY inched up to 96.53 on Friday, trading mainly affected by the much better than expected US jobs data but also on anticipation that the BOJ will follow more aggressive steps to achieve its 2% inflation target with its new likely governor, Kuroda. The currency pair breached key resistance at 95 easily and achieved more than 3 ½ highs on Friday.
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Yen Weakens on BOJ Minutes, EURUSD Holds Above 1.30 Ahead of EU Summit
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The Japanese Yen weakened further early on Tuesday due to BOJ Monetary meeting minutes indicating that further easing could be decided as the inflation remained at 0%. Additionally, governor nominee, Kuroda, stated that would go on with more aggressive monetary policy as soon as he is confirmed, followed by deputy governor nominees arguing more monetary easing. The USDJPY hovered above 96.60 but then retraced below that level on profit taking or overbought indications with NIKKEI following into negative ground to close at -0.28%.

The Euro was little changed against the greenback remaining slightly above 1.30, while shadow from political uncertainty in Italy is still in place and concerns of recent downgrade of its sovereign debt of Fitch ratings. Moreover, later this week EU summit would take place where Cyprus bailout is likely to be agreed. The GBPUSD holds near more than 2 ½ year lows at 1.4866. The pair retreated slightly, earlier today from cap at 1.4932 due to significantly less than projected RICS House Price Balance released at -6% in February, much worse than -2% that economists expected, compared to -4% in January.

Concerning other major currency pairs, the USDCHF is in sideways trading around 0.9490, AUDUSD advanced to 1.0311 from handle at 1.0217. The precious metal remains just below the upside barrier at $1584.48, lifting earlier on European concerns while market participants are expecting EU summit.

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