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Presentation Slides & Transcript
MorFish data & analyses: update
Analysis objectives Step 1: reconstruct observed population dynamics Step 2: extrinsic factors to better explain dynamics
Analysis objectives Step 1: reconstruct observed population dynamics Step 2: extrinsic factors to better explain dynamics
INRA adult CMR data = 20 years Reconstruct observed dynamics
INRA adult CMR data = 20 years GWCT adult CMR data = 9 years Reconstruct observed dynamics
INRA adult CMR data = 20 years GWCT adult CMR data = 40 years Reconstruct observed dynamics count
Frome adult count data Monitoring devices Fish counter Waveform Image verification Video verification 24hr video validation counts
Frome adult count data Issues Species identification System evolution Periods of poor efficiency Periods of malfunction
Complex data!
Objective To develop a general method for estimating the true number of salmon that ascend the river each year Population estimates despite system changes & failure Improved estimates using covariates of efficiency Uncertainty around estimates; more comparable General method transferable to other rivers / systems Why?
Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative False negative True negative Count / day 3 0 1 1 Error rate
Estimating adult population
Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive Count / day Error rate
Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative Count / day Error rate
Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative Missed Count / day Error rate
Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative Missed Unverified Count / day Error rate
Estimating adult population True negatives False positives Upstream & downstream rates separately Daily, monthly or annual estimates
Estimating adult population
Estimating adult population
First adult population estimates
Improving estimates Weak inter - period (hierarchical) dependence Error rates Reduce uncertainty Effects of flow Video e rror rates Rate of upstream / downstream counts
Adult estimates and SLC
Scorff and Oir ? Daily count estimation Scorff & Oir Effects of flow Daily trap efficiencies Extrinsic drivers or temporal trend Frome ~ 40yrs data Scorff ~ 20yrs data
Questions adult
Analysis objectives Step 1: reconstruct observed population dynamics Step 2: extrinsic factors to better explain dynamics
Extrinsic factors 1) Sedimentation / Flow 2) River temperature
Extrinsic factors 1) Sedimentation / Flow 2) River temperature
Sedimentation Data Scorff no data! Frome LOCAR & suspended solids monitoring data Many locations 1977 - ongoing
Suspended solids ~ Flow Flow data Scorff Daily mean 1963 - present Frome 15 minutes 1973 - present
Suspended solids ~ Flow
Suspended solids ~ Flow ~ Siltation?? Siltation?
Empirical vs simulation study Empirical study Paucity of data Suspended solids / flow ~ Siltation? Simulation study Use results from existing studies Limited use of data
Extrinsic factors 1) Sedimentation / Flow 2) River temperature
River temperature Data Scorff & Oir ?? Frome 1963 - ongoing
River temperature Analysis Statistical analysis (GLM / GLMM) of trends in: a) Migration timing b) Growth / size c) Survival for Scorff, Oir and Frome
Questions