by sgregory

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MorFish Scientific Committee meeting talk November 2013

Published Nov 25, 2013 in Science
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MorFish Scientific Committee meeting talk November 2013... Read more

A talk given to the GWCT Fisheries Scientific Steering Committee in November 2013. The GWCT Fisheries Scientific Steering Committee meet twice a year and staff update on progress and discuss future directions.

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Presentation Slides & Transcript

Presentation Slides & Transcript

MorFish data & analyses: update

Analysis objectives Step 1: reconstruct observed population dynamics Step 2: extrinsic factors to better explain dynamics

Analysis objectives Step 1: reconstruct observed population dynamics Step 2: extrinsic factors to better explain dynamics

INRA adult CMR data = 20 years Reconstruct observed dynamics

INRA adult CMR data = 20 years GWCT adult CMR data = 9 years Reconstruct observed dynamics

INRA adult CMR data = 20 years GWCT adult CMR data = 40 years Reconstruct observed dynamics count

Frome adult count data Monitoring devices Fish counter Waveform Image verification Video verification 24hr video validation counts

Frome adult count data Issues Species identification System evolution Periods of poor efficiency Periods of malfunction

Complex data!

Objective To develop a general method for estimating the true number of salmon that ascend the river each year Population estimates despite system changes & failure Improved estimates using covariates of efficiency Uncertainty around estimates; more comparable General method transferable to other rivers / systems Why?

Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative False negative True negative Count / day 3 0 1 1 Error rate

Estimating adult population

Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive Count / day Error rate

Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative Count / day Error rate

Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative Missed Count / day Error rate

Estimating adult population Verified Salmon Mistaken Other fish Missed Salmon Unverified Salmon Waveform Salmon Other fish - Salmon Video Salmon Salmon Salmon - Classify True positive False negative Missed Unverified Count / day Error rate

Estimating adult population True negatives False positives Upstream & downstream rates separately Daily, monthly or annual estimates

Estimating adult population

Estimating adult population

First adult population estimates

Improving estimates Weak inter - period (hierarchical) dependence Error rates Reduce uncertainty Effects of flow Video e rror rates Rate of upstream / downstream counts

Adult estimates and SLC

Scorff and Oir ? Daily count estimation Scorff & Oir Effects of flow Daily trap efficiencies Extrinsic drivers or temporal trend Frome ~ 40yrs data Scorff ~ 20yrs data

Questions adult

Analysis objectives Step 1: reconstruct observed population dynamics Step 2: extrinsic factors to better explain dynamics

Extrinsic factors 1) Sedimentation / Flow 2) River temperature

Extrinsic factors 1) Sedimentation / Flow 2) River temperature

Sedimentation Data Scorff no data! Frome LOCAR & suspended solids monitoring data Many locations 1977 - ongoing

Suspended solids ~ Flow Flow data Scorff Daily mean 1963 - present Frome 15 minutes 1973 - present

Suspended solids ~ Flow

Suspended solids ~ Flow ~ Siltation?? Siltation?

Empirical vs simulation study Empirical study Paucity of data Suspended solids / flow ~ Siltation? Simulation study Use results from existing studies Limited use of data

Extrinsic factors 1) Sedimentation / Flow 2) River temperature

River temperature Data Scorff & Oir ?? Frome 1963 - ongoing

River temperature Analysis Statistical analysis (GLM / GLMM) of trends in: a) Migration timing b) Growth / size c) Survival for Scorff, Oir and Frome

Questions