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Laurel Lacher - BLM RMP

Published Jul 24, 2013 in Science
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Presentation Slides & Transcript

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Groundwater and Baseflow Trends in the Upper San Pedro Basin, 1902 - 2100 Presented at SPRNCA RMP Educational Forum July 20, 2013 Sierra Vista, AZ by Laurel Lacher, PhD, RG Lacher Hydrological Consulting

Sierra Vista Subwatershed 2

Source: Winter , T.C., J.W. Harvey, Franke , O.L., and W.M. Alley, 1998, Ground Water and Surface Water A Single Resource, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1139, Denver, CO. Discharge Area (Aquifer) Groundwater and Surface Water: How Are They Related? 3

Source: Winter , T.C., J.W. Harvey, Franke , O.L., and W.M. Alley, 1998, Ground Water and Surface Water A Single Resource, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1139, Denver, CO . Gaining Stream Discharge area 4 Natural System Gaining Stream

Source: Winter , T.C., J.W. Harvey, Franke , O.L., and W.M. Alley, 1998, Ground Water and Surface Water A Single Resource, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1139, Denver, CO. Modified Groundwater Flow Direction Reduced Groundwater to Stream Pumping Well Less Gaining Stream NEW DISCHARGE AREA 5 Effects of Pumping on Baseflow Intermediate Time

Pumping Well Losing Stream Source: Winter , T.C., J.W. Harvey, Franke , O.L., and W.M. Alley, 1998, Ground Water and Surface Water A Single Resource, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1139, Denver, CO . 6 After Prolonged Pumping

RECHARGE DISCHARGE Capture : Increased RECHARGE + Decreased DISCHARGE Baseflow & Evapotranspiration Pumping = Aquifer Storage + Capture AQUIFER AQUIFER 7 Natural Conditions: RECHARGE = DISCHARGE

Groundwater Model with a 8 How Can We Predict Capture From Future Pumping?

9 MODEL : A Description or Analogy Used to Help Visualize Something that Cannot be Directly Observed. -- Merriam - Webster Dictionary definition no. 11

Aquifers Streams Evaporation Pumping, Recharge, Evaporative Demand Groundwater Conditions, Baseflow, Evaporative Consumption INPUT OUTPUT Flow Equations Numerical Model 10 GROUNDWATER MODEL : A Computer Program that Uses Flow Equations to Make Sense of a Complex Natural System.

2 seasons Includes most of SPRNCA Calibrated from 1902 - 2003 Includes entire upper basin Forward modeling from 2003 - 2100 by Lacher (2011) Upper San Pedro Basin Groundwater Model: (Pool and Dickinson, 2007, USGS) 11

12 Surface runoff Flood flows Streambank storage What This Groundwater Model Does NOT Do:

13 pumping recharge ET baseflow PREDICTIVE

14 Simulated Drawdown in Regional Aquifer (Model Layer 4) contour interval = 15 feet MOSTLY AQUIFER STORAGE DEPLETION

Sierra Vista contour interval = 10 m 0 4 2 miles N Generalized Groundwater Flow Path Lines A 15 Simulated 1902 Heads

contour interval = 10 m 0 4 2 miles N Sierra Vista Generalized Groundwater Flow Path Lines A - 27.5 ft 16 Simulated March 2013 Heads

contour interval = 10 m 0 4 2 miles N Sierra Vista Generalized Groundwater Flow Path Lines A 2100 - 93 ft 17 Simulated March 2100 Heads

1902 2013 2100 GW Divide i 2013 = - 17% i 2100 = - 35% Cone of Depression 18

244 477 881 1093 south upper PRE - DEVELOPMENT 153 424 723 997 south upper March 2013 Total Capture 1902 - 2013: 3461 AF/yr 19

contour interval = 10 m 0 4 2 miles N Sierra Vista Generalized Groundwater Flow Path Lines A INCREASED INFLOW REDUCED OUTFLOW 20 Simulated March 2013 Heads

244 477 881 1093 south upper PRE - DEVELOPMENT 153 424 723 997 south upper March 2013 Total Capture 1902 - 2013: 3461 AF/yr 509 262 491 3052 south upper March 2100 Total Capture 1902 - 2100: 7027 AF/yr 21

5 4 3 2 1 2 3 Sierra Vista EOP San Pedro River West East 22 Fry Boulevard Cross - Section

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Take - Home Message Most pumping in the Upper San Pedro Basin during 20 th century came from aquifer storage. Over the next century, pumping will increasingly draw from aquifer storage in the area southeast of Sierra Vista and from baseflow and ET from the San Pedro and Babocomari rivers. 24

25 LLacher1@msn.com Thank you!

26 Baseflow Evapotranspiration (ET) PUMPED WATER = AQUIFER STORAGE + CAPTURE