presented by
Harry S. Dent, Jr.
(1993)
(2011)
The Great China Bubble,
Global Demographic Trends and
Growth in Emerging Countries

The Great China Bubble

Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate
Source: United Nations

China GDP Growth
2000-2012
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013
YoY Percent Change

China, PMI
2007-2013
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013

China, Trends
Year over Year Change
Source: Bloomberg, 2013

Declining Personal Consumption in China 1952-2012
Source: The Economist “One-Track Bind.” 9/24/2011; World Bank, 2013

Change in China Components of GDP
1995-2000
2005-2012
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operative Development, 2013

Chinese Capital Spending
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Chinese Investment Bubble
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Chinese Capital Spending
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Chinese Credit Bubble
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Housing Units vs. Household Formation
Source: Pivot Capital Management, 2010

Home Price to Income Ratio in Emerging and Developed World Cities, 2012
Source: www.numbeo.com

Steel Capacity
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Cement Capacity
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Aluminum Capacity
Source: Pivot Capital Management

Economies Exposed by Exports to China
Source: Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011

Exports as a Percent of GDP in Select Countries
Data Source: The World Bank, 2012

Percent of GDP Exported to China in Select Countries
Data Source: The World Bank, 2011, Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011

China’s Global Share of Selected Commodities
Percent
Source: The Economist; “A Game of Catch-up,” 9/24/2011

29-30 Year Commodity Price Cycle
CRB Index (PPI before 1947) 1913-2040
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013
1949-1951
1920
1980
2009-10
2039-40

34-36 Year Geopolitical Cycle
Dow Industrials
Data Source: HS Dent, Yahoo Finance, 2013

250-Year Revolutionary Cycle
1650
1900
2150
Protestant Revolution Capitalist Revolution
American Revolution French Revolution Industrial Revolution
2nd American Revolution Emerging World Revolution Network Revolution

Global Demographic Trends

Europe, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations

U.S. vs. Spain, House Price Index, 1995-2012
Source: “Investment Focus: The Pain in Spain,” Carmel Asset Management; Bloomberg, 2013
Index 100= 1995

U.S. vs. Spain, % of Workforce Involved in Construction
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013

Bankruptcies in Spain
2000-2012
Data Source: National Institute of Statistics, Spain, 2013

Latin America/Caribbean, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095
Source: United Nations

East Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations

Southeast Asia, Spending Wave vs.
Workforce Growth, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations

South Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations

Middle East/North Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations

Sub-Saharan Africa, Spending Wave vs.
Workforce Growth, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations

Source: United Nations
Japan 1
Russia 1
US 1 Europe
Japan 2 S. Korea
China 2 Russia 2
US 2 Indonesia Brazil
Mid East Saudi Arabia
India
Pakistan N. Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Mexico SE Asia
China 1
Global Innovation/Inflation Wave

Global Spending Wave
Source: United Nations
Japan 1
Russia 1
US 1 Europe
Japan 2 S. Korea
China 2 Russia 2
US 2 Indonesia Brazil
Mid East Saudi Arabia
India
Pakistan N. Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Mexico SE Asia
China 1

Growth in Emerging Countries

Source: Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. 2001 Development Center Studies, OECD, 2012
Urbanization Rates in Select Developed Countries
% Urbanization

Western Europe
U.S., Australia, New Zealand
Japan
Korea
China
India
The Wealth Curve The S-Curve of Industrialization/Urbanization
Time
Percent Adoption
Source: Dent Research

Source: Euromonitor International, World Income Distribution, 2008/2009, 6th Edition.
Income by Age, 10-Year Cohorts

Distribution of Income in China, 2011
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, 2012

Distribution of Income in India, 2011
Source: India Bureau of Statistics, 2012

Brazil
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
$10,100
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$10,008 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

Brazil, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth,
1950-2095
Source: United Nations

China
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$14,000
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$9,498 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

China, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095
Source: United Nations

India
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$11,550
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$3,870 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

India, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095
Source: United Nations

Indonesia
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$7,250
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$5,089 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

Malaysia
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$15,900
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$14,689 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

Iran
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$11,900
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$12,154 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

Philippines
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$3,850
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$3,847 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

Kenya
GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs.
Urbanization Rate
$3,100
% Urban
GDP Per Capita
Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
$1,448 in 2011 Int’l Dollars

Source: United Nations
In Billions
Total World Population Projection for 2010 -2100

History of World Population Growth
*Ratio scale shows constant percentage growth rate a straight, upward-sloping line; linear scale shows equal absolute increases, so steady percentage growth rate; to curve up; Source: Forbes, January 25, 1999. pp 58-59.;Research: Edwin S. Rubenstein, research director, Hudson Institute, Indianapolis.
Data: Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, Atlas of World Population History: U.N. Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision: Census Bureau.
Population in Millions (Ratio Scale)
Population in Millions (Ratio Scale)

Projections for GDP in 2065 U.S., China and India
Source: Dent Research

Japan Nikkei Bubble and Bust
1985-1995
Data Source: Bloomberg

Bubbles Are Like Orgasms
Masters and Johnson Sexual Response Cycle
Orgasm
Excitement & Plateau (Arousal)
Desire (Appetitive)
Source: Masters and Johnson

EEM vs. CRB Index
1995-2013
EEM
CRB Index
Data Source: Yahoo Finance, 2013

Shanghai Composite - China
5th Wave Peak and A-B-C Correction, 1995-2015
3
4
5
B
A
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013
2
1
3

Sensex - India
1995-2015
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013
5
B
A
C

Bovespa – Brazil
1998-2015
Data Source: Yahoo! Finance, 2013
5
B
A
2
1
3

Cement Consumption per Capita, 1900-2012
Source: SG Cross Asset Research, USGS, Italcementi, 2013, Metric Tons